{"id":10919,"date":"2022-04-28T19:55:26","date_gmt":"2022-04-28T18:55:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/?p=10919"},"modified":"2022-04-28T19:56:50","modified_gmt":"2022-04-28T18:56:50","slug":"kdo-chce-kam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/?p=10919","title":{"rendered":"Kdo chce kam…"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u010ce\u0161i netu\u0161\u00ed, co je \u010dek\u00e1. Vl\u00e1da te\u010f nem\u016f\u017ee pomoci, krize teprve p\u0159ijde, varuje ekonom<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na \u010cechy se val\u00ed obrovsk\u00e1 krize, kterou si jen t\u011b\u017eko dovedou p\u0159edstavit, \u0159ekl v rozhovoru pro CNN Prima NEWS hlavn\u00ed ekonom Trinity Bank Luk\u00e1\u0161 Kovanda. V souvislosti s t\u00edm pova\u017euje za rozumn\u00e9, \u017ee si vl\u00e1da nechce \u201evyst\u0159\u00edlet ve\u0161kerou munici\u201c s pomoc\u00ed okam\u017eit\u011b, proto\u017ee kritick\u00e1 situace teprve p\u0159ijde a bude pot\u0159eba lidi ukonej\u0161it. Pokud dojde ke sm\u00edru na Ukrajin\u011b, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 letn\u00ed inflaci kolem 16 procent, pokud ne, tak m\u016f\u017ee podle n\u011bj vyst\u0159elit a\u017e k 25 procent\u016fm a lid\u00e9 by si museli zvyknout na to, \u017ee zchudnou.<\/strong> M\u011bli bychom tedy za\u010d\u00edt \u0161et\u0159it a skupovat potraviny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee seniory je\u0161t\u011b letos \u010dek\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed d\u016fchod\u016f. Kdy by se ho mohli do\u010dkat?<\/strong>
Jestli\u017ee by dynamika n\u00e1r\u016fstu inflace byla st\u00e1le tak rychl\u00e1 jako byla mezi lednem a \u00fanorem, co\u017e je pom\u011brn\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, tak dal\u0161\u00ed hranici p\u011bt procent pot\u0159ebnou pro z\u00e1konn\u00e9 nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed poko\u0159\u00edme u\u017e v \u010dervnu nebo v \u010dervenci. Podm\u00ednky pro dal\u0161\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dnou valorizaci budou tedy spln\u011bn\u00e9 a ze z\u00e1kona pak nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed mus\u00ed prob\u011bhnout do p\u011bti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. U\u017e po p\u011bti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9. To v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by to bylo v listopadu nebo v prosinci.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co \u0159\u00edk\u00e1te na uva\u017eovan\u00e9 nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed rodi\u010dovsk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku? D\u00e1v\u00e1 to z va\u0161eho pohledu ekonoma dlouhodob\u011b smysl?<\/strong>
Pokud dojde k t\u0159et\u00ed valorizaci d\u016fchod\u016f, tak je asi logick\u00e9, \u017ee se budou dal\u0161\u00ed zraniteln\u00e9 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed skupiny c\u00edtit znev\u00fdhodn\u011bny, proto\u017ee pro\u010d m\u00e1 st\u00e1t dvakr\u00e1t mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b p\u0159id\u00e1vat d\u016fchodc\u016fm a jim ne. V r\u00e1mci soci\u00e1ln\u00ed spravedlnosti by bylo nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed asi p\u0159\u00edhodn\u00e9. Na druhou stranu jde o plo\u0161n\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed, co\u017e tato vl\u00e1da odm\u00edt\u00e1 a chce pom\u00e1hat adresn\u011b. Je ot\u00e1zka, jestli je\u0161t\u011b nejde identifikovat opravdu zraniteln\u00e9 rodiny. Nen\u00ed asi t\u0159eba, aby dob\u0159e situovan\u00e9 rodiny dost\u00e1valy mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 pen\u00edze, zase je ale pravda, \u017ee i u t\u011bch d\u016fchodc\u016f to nen\u00ed adresn\u00e9 a t\u00fdk\u00e1 se to i bohat\u00fdch d\u016fchodc\u016f.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

St\u00e1le to ale nen\u00ed tak plo\u0161n\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed, jak navrhovala Babi\u0161ova vl\u00e1da, tedy sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed nebo do\u010dasn\u00e9 zru\u0161en\u00ed DPH.<\/strong>
Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed DPH je megaplo\u0161n\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed, tady u\u017e t\u00edm, \u017ee jsou vyselektov\u00e1ny rodiny s d\u011btmi, n\u011bjak\u00e1 selekce zaji\u0161t\u011bna je. Obecn\u011b si ale mysl\u00edm, \u017ee vl\u00e1da mus\u00ed jak\u00e9koliv dal\u0161\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00eddavky d\u011blat adresn\u011b. Je to i v souladu s t\u00edm, co vl\u00e1da sl\u00edbila a co kritizovala na Babi\u0161ovi. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je to ale politicky nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed. Je t\u0159eba si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee po\u017eadavk\u016f p\u0159ibyde. Jak se bude zvy\u0161ovat inflace, tak se to na vl\u00e1du po\u0159\u00edt\u00ed ze v\u0161ech stran a ona mus\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b dob\u0159e zva\u017eovat zac\u00edlen\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed, jinak ji \u010dek\u00e1 osud Babi\u0161ovy vl\u00e1dy, \u017ee se dostane do velk\u00fdch dluh\u016f. Jin\u00e1 mo\u017enost tady nen\u00ed<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e1 se n\u011bjak shrnout, co n\u00e1s vlastn\u011b \u010dek\u00e1?<\/strong>
Budou probl\u00e9my naprosto se v\u0161\u00edm<\/strong><\/em>.<\/em> Lid\u00e9 na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed v\u016fbec nev\u011bd\u00ed a netu\u0161\u00ed<\/strong><\/em>, co je \u010dek\u00e1, ale ten infla\u010dn\u00ed <\/strong><\/em>n\u00e1raz bude obrovsk\u00fd<\/strong><\/em> a v\u0161e samoz\u0159ejm\u011b z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, co se stane na Ukrajin\u011b. Jestli t\u0159eba dojde k vypnut\u00ed plynu, tak <\/strong><\/em>to bude m\u00edt nedoz\u00edrn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. Poroste nezam\u011bstnanost,<\/strong><\/em> proto\u017ee podniky nebudou vyr\u00e1b\u011bt,<\/strong><\/em> bude obrovsky drah\u00e1 elekt\u0159ina, zdra\u017e\u00ed se v\u0161echno spot\u0159ebn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed, potraviny a n\u011bkter\u00e9 v\u011bci t\u0159eba v\u016fbec nebudou.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee my rusk\u00fd plyn nem\u00e1me \u010d\u00edm nahradit, je to naprost\u00e9 sci-fi.<\/strong><\/em> \u010c\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed by bylo v tom, kdyby u\u017e te\u010f N\u011bmci m\u011bli za\u010d\u00edt nahazovat sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 a uheln\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny, ale zat\u00edm se v\u0161ichni up\u00ednaj\u00ed k tomu, \u017ee k p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek nedojde. Je pravda, \u017ee slo\u017eit\u00e9 by to bylo i pro Rusko, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edjem zhruba 20 miliard korun denn\u011b z v\u00fdvozu plynu a ropy do EU. To ani Rusko nenahrad\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Podle m\u00fdch informac\u00ed vl\u00e1da v\u00ed, \u017ee bude je\u0161t\u011b h\u016f\u0159, a proto pl\u00e1nuje d\u011blat opat\u0159en\u00ed sal\u00e1movou metodou. Je to podle v\u00e1s dob\u0159e?<\/strong>
Souhlas\u00edm s postojem, \u017ee to nejhor\u0161\u00ed teprve p\u0159ijde a vl\u00e1da si te\u010f nem\u016f\u017ee vyst\u0159\u00edlet v\u0161echnu munici, proto\u017ee<\/strong><\/em> lidi budou st\u00e1le nespokojen\u011bj\u0161\u00ed<\/strong><\/em> a <\/strong><\/em>a\u017e bude situace skute\u010dn\u011b kritick\u00e1, tak je bude muset vl\u00e1da n\u011b\u010d\u00edm uchl\u00e1cholit<\/strong><\/em>. A<\/strong><\/em> ta kritick\u00e1 situace teprve nastane.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kdy bude situace nejkriti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed?<\/strong>
Infla\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1lo\u017e se v pln\u00e9 s\u00edle projev\u00ed kolem poloviny roku,<\/strong><\/em> ale jak \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m, v\u0161e bude z\u00e1le\u017eet na v\u00fdvoji na Ukrajin\u011b. Pokud by se situace uklidnila a do\u0161lo k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, tak inflace bude gradovat<\/strong> v polovin\u011b roku t\u0159eba<\/em> kolem 16 %<\/strong><\/em>a pak by se postupn\u011b mohla stabilizovat <\/em>a za cel\u00fd rok by \u010dinila t\u0159eba 13 %<\/strong><\/em>. I to je ale samo o sob\u011b velk\u00fd probl\u00e9m, proto\u017ee mzdy porostou t\u0159eba o 6 % a 6 minus 13 je 7, tak\u017ee by re\u00e1ln\u011b klesly mzdy, kupn\u00ed s\u00edla, \u00faspory v bance a \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 o sedm procent. To je ale st\u00e1le pozitivn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Pak tu m\u00e1me \u010dern\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, \u017ee se v\u00e1lka d\u00e1le rozlije, nebo \u017ee dojde k t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lce a zastaven\u00ed dod\u00e1vek plynu a dal\u0161\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed<\/strong>. To v\u0161e by se projevilo v obrovsk\u00e9m n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen plynu, elekt\u0159iny, ale i obil\u00ed a tak d\u00e1le.<\/strong> Firmy v N\u011bmecku \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee kdyby k tomu do\u0161lo, tak by to byla nejhor\u0161\u00ed krize v Evrop\u011b od druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. A mysl\u00edm, \u017ee to nen\u00ed daleko od pravdy.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co by m\u011bli v t\u00e9to situaci d\u011blat oby\u010dejn\u00ed \u010ce\u0161i? Necestovat, \u0161et\u0159it, investovat, vyrazit na n\u00e1kup potravin?<\/strong>
V t\u00e9to chv\u00edli je ka\u017ed\u00e1 rada drah\u00e1, ale tohle u\u017e by se nedalo p\u0159e\u010dkat jako pandemie s dotacemi od st\u00e1tu. <\/strong><\/em>Na to by st\u00e1t nem\u011bl<\/strong><\/em>. To by znamenalo, \u017ee by razantn\u011b stoupla nezam\u011bstnanost<\/strong>, proto\u017ee firmy by p\u0159i tak drah\u00fdch energi\u00edch v\u00fdrobu neut\u00e1hly. <\/strong><\/em>Statis\u00edce lid\u00ed by se octly pom\u011brn\u011b rychle bez pr\u00e1ce<\/strong><\/em>a d\u00e1le by to zhor\u0161ovalo stav ekonomiky. A jsme ve spir\u00e1le, co\u017e je z hlediska ekonoma <\/strong><\/em>naprost\u00e1 \u010dern\u00e1 m\u016fra<\/strong><\/em>, kter\u00e1 ale skute\u010dn\u011b hroz\u00ed<\/strong><\/em> a vlastn\u011b nikdo nev\u00ed, co se stane. Tam by potom predikce mohla b\u00fdt<\/em> inflace klidn\u011b 20 nebo 25 %.<\/strong><\/em> Uv\u011bdomme si, \u017ee n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho je r\u016fst inflace, kdy\u017e m\u00e1te pr\u00e1ci, ale n\u011bco zcela jin\u00e9ho, kdy\u017e ji v\u016fbec nem\u00e1te. To u\u017e je ekonomika t\u011b\u017ece porouchan\u00e1, nem\u00e1 to \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed a lid\u00e9 by si museli zvyknout na v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 a dlouhodob\u00e9 zhor\u0161en\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u011b\u017eko asi investovat do akci\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b investice do bydlen\u00ed, ale kdyby byla hlubok\u00e1 krize, tak by mohla za\u010d\u00edt klesat i cena nemovitost\u00ed. T\u0159eba investice do americk\u00fdch bank nebo n\u011bmeck\u00fdch zbroja\u0159\u016f, ale to zase nen\u00ed pro ka\u017ed\u00e9ho.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A opat\u0159en\u00ed pro b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 ob\u010dany? Nejezdit na dovolenou? Nakoupit z\u00e1soby? M\u011bli by takto lid\u00e9 p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let?<\/strong>
Jednozna\u010dn\u011b ano, na druhou stranu to pak zbrzd\u00ed kola ekonomiky. U\u017e jsem ale n\u011bjak\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla vid\u011bl a lid\u00e9 za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed \u0161et\u0159it a daleko v\u00edce si \u00fatratu hl\u00eddaj\u00ed. Lid\u00e9 to podle m\u011b sleduj\u00ed, jsou z toho vylekan\u00ed a vyd\u011b\u0161en\u00ed a u\u017e m\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 n\u00e1vyky,<\/em> ale mo\u017en\u00e1 zat\u00edm nech\u00e1pou to, \u017ee je to teprve za\u010d\u00e1tek a \u017ee situace bude mnohem hor\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se nyn\u00ed jev\u00ed.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tak co, jste   u\u017e dost vyd\u011b\u0161en\u00ed!!! P\u0159em\u00fd\u0161l\u00edte, kam n\u00e1s  ta  politika \u201eodpov\u011bdn\u00fdch\u201c pup\u00edk\u016f a jejich neust\u00e1l\u00e9ho provokov\u00e1n\u00ed dostala?  Respektive, kam n\u00e1s  asi tak dostane? J\u00e1 si pro sebe maloval n\u011bjak\u00e9 odhady, ale  tak daleko jako Kovanda jsem se nikdy  nedoprojektoval. Takhle daleko ne!!!!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pokud  se mne  pt\u00e1te n\u00e1hodou, co s  t\u00edm, jak se ochr\u00e1nit, odpov\u00edm rovnou a  bez vyt\u00e1\u010dek \u2013 nem\u00e1m potuchy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ale  dovol\u00edm si vyslovit jedno z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 jestli se to odehraje podle Kovandy, nebo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b  tak, pak douf\u00e1m, \u017ee nejen v  tuzemsku. N\u00fdbr\u017e  nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d  celou Evropou. V\u010detn\u011b N\u011bmecka, Holandska, Skandin\u00e1vie, D\u00e1nska a  dal\u0161\u00edch ostr\u016fvk\u016f z\u00e1padn\u00edho blahobytu. Pro\u010d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proto, abychom ty klacky, a\u017e si to zdecimovan\u00fd  lid p\u016fjde vy\u0159\u00eddit s t\u011bmi co  Evropu do t\u00e9 Kovandovy situace  dostanou,  nesb\u00edrali jen v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice. Ale  aby je ve sv\u00e9 bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed bl\u00edzkosti zaznamenali i ti  co dr\u017e\u00ed kormidlo v Berl\u00edn\u011b, Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei, atd.atd. a  tak\u00e9 a  p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v Bruselu!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aby kone\u010dn\u011b tihle  pochopili, \u017ee  n\u011bjak\u00fdm t\u011bm  b\u00e1jn\u00fdm evropsk\u00fdm a transatlantick\u00fdm hodnot\u00e1m je  v\u017edycky a  v\u017edycky bude nad\u0159azena, respektive  MUS\u00cd b\u00fdt nad\u0159azena \u010desk\u00e1 hodnota!!!  Z\u00e1jem, pr\u00e1va a  o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed  \u010desk\u00fdch da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edk\u016f a voli\u010d\u016f!!! V\u017edycky, v\u0161ude a  za v\u0161ech okolnost\u00ed!!!! V \u010cesk\u00e9 republice!  A u\u017e jen  p\u0159edstava  o  20%  nebo je\u0161t\u011b  v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed inflaci, predikuj\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee  nejm\u00e9n\u011b polovina  n\u00e1roda upadne  do akutn\u00ed chudoby  a nouze  je  naprosto nep\u0159\u00edpustn\u00e1, proto\u017ee  zvrhl\u00e1 a  antihum\u00e1nn\u00ed! Znamenalo by  to naprost\u00e9 civiliza\u010dn\u00ed selh\u00e1n\u00ed a zhroucen\u00ed!  O ekoterorismu a  magorech, nad\u0159azuj\u00edc\u00edch  55 r\u016fzn\u00fdch pohlav\u00ed  a  dal\u0161\u00edch podobn\u00fdch  \u00faletech z naprost\u00e9 roze\u017eranosti \u2013 nemluv\u011b!!!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tohle\u00a0 hroz\u00ed opravdu\u00a0 velkou erupc\u00ed n\u00e1sil\u00ed!!!\u00a0 Jestlipak si to\u00a0 papal\u00e1\u0161i, co n\u00e1s\u00a0 do t\u00e9hle situace dostali u\u017e alespo\u0148 za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed uv\u011bdomovat?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A prdel na z\u00e1v\u011br:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cesti-kokoti<\/a>St\u00e1hnout<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u010ce\u0161i netu\u0161\u00ed, co je \u010dek\u00e1. Vl\u00e1da te\u010f nem\u016f\u017ee pomoci, krize teprve p\u0159ijde, varuje ekonom Na \u010cechy se val\u00ed obrovsk\u00e1 krize, kterou si jen t\u011b\u017eko dovedou p\u0159edstavit, \u0159ekl v rozhovoru pro CNN Prima NEWS hlavn\u00ed ekonom Trinity Bank Luk\u00e1\u0161 Kovanda. V souvislosti s t\u00edm pova\u017euje za rozumn\u00e9, \u017ee si vl\u00e1da nechce \u201evyst\u0159\u00edlet ve\u0161kerou munici\u201c s pomoc\u00ed … Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed textu Kdo chce kam…<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-pc"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10919"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10919\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10922,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10919\/revisions\/10922"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}