{"id":23118,"date":"2026-03-01T15:34:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T14:34:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/?p=23118"},"modified":"2026-03-01T15:34:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T14:34:54","slug":"jestli-padne-iransky-rezim-tak-panbuh-s-nami-jiri-kobza-a-cerny-scenar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/?p=23118","title":{"rendered":"Jestli padne \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim, tak p\u00e1nb\u016fh s n\u00e1mi. Ji\u0159\u00ed Kobza a \u010dern\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

01.03.2026 13:33 | Koment\u00e1\u0159<\/p>\n\n\n\n

autor: Jakub Vos\u00e1hlo<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fdval\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f \u010desk\u00e9 ambas\u00e1dy v Teher\u00e1nu Ji\u0159\u00ed Kobza v koment\u00e1\u0159i pro Parlamentn\u00edListy.cz uvedl, \u017ee \u00fatok USA a Izraele na \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee teher\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim sp\u00ed\u0161e upevnit, ne\u017e oslabit. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 nazna\u010dil, \u017ee v pozad\u00ed mohou hr\u00e1t roli i vnitropolitick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech p\u0159ed volbami. Podle n\u011bj je nutn\u00e9 usilovat o diplomatick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed a\u017e do posledn\u00ed chv\u00edle. Koment\u00e1\u0159 zve\u0159ej\u0148ujeme bez redak\u010dn\u00edch z\u00e1sah\u016f.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Jestli
Foto: Hans \u0160tembera<\/strong>
Popisek: Ji\u0159\u00ed Kobza<\/strong><\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Co znamen\u00e1 pro n\u00e1s \u00fatok na Ir\u00e1n? Pod\u00edvejme se na \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed souvislosti. Splnil se sen tam\u011bj\u0161\u00edho autokratick\u00e9ho re\u017eimu. V\u0161echny totalitn\u00ed re\u017eimy toti\u017e stoj\u00ed a padaj\u00ed s vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edtelem, ohro\u017euj\u00edc\u00edm jejich st\u00e1t. Pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed jej tak nutn\u011b, \u017ee jsou ochotny si takov\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1tele vymyslet a vyrobit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Pokud dojde k v\u00e1lce, tak m\u00e1 re\u017eim vystar\u00e1no, nebo\u0165, jak jsme vid\u011bli nap\u0159\u00edklad ve v\u00e1lce Ir\u00e1k vs. \u00cdr\u00e1n, ob\u011b strany vyu\u017e\u00edvaly v\u00e1lku p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm k tomu, aby se zbavily opozice, jej\u00ed\u017e p\u0159edstavitele (nebo jejich d\u011bti) nechaly potichu zmizet v prvn\u00ed linii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V sou\u010dasnosti ale v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b americk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na \u00cdr\u00e1n nejde Ameri\u010dan\u016fm a Izraelc\u016fm ani tak  o \u00cdr\u00e1n, jako jim jde, ostatn\u011b jako v\u017edy, o to, kdo vyhraje podzimn\u00ed volby v USA a pro ty prezident Trump pot\u0159ebuje pozici zachr\u00e1nce a v\u00edt\u011bze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izraelsk\u00fd Netanyahu je v podobn\u00e9 pozici. Proto\u017ee jakou jinou logiku by m\u011blo \u00fato\u010dit na \u00cdr\u00e1n v moment\u011b, kdy rozhovory o nov\u00e9 smlouv\u011b USA \u2013 \u00cdr\u00e1n je\u0161t\u011b prob\u00edhaj\u00ed, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 re\u017eim se hrout\u00ed pod astronomickou inflac\u00ed a bou\u0159emi protest\u016f? Vypad\u00e1 to hezky, ale v\u0161imn\u011bme si, \u017ee opozice je naprosto \u017eiveln\u00e1, bez v\u00fdrazn\u00fdch postav, schopn\u00fdch p\u0159evz\u00edt moc. Princ Pahlav\u00ed sice tyto ambice m\u00e1, ale je ot\u00e1zkou, jakou podporu bude m\u00edt v \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nav\u00edc, jak p\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny pros\u00e1klo do m\u00e9di\u00ed, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd v\u016fdce Ch\u00e1mene\u00ed pro p\u0159\u00edpad sv\u00e9 \u201esmrti\u201c ji\u017e p\u0159edem nominoval celou n\u00e1slednickou mocenskou strukturu. Po p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9m p\u00e1du re\u017eimu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nastane ob\u010dansk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, kterou vyhraj\u00ed perfektn\u011b organizovan\u00ed, vycvi\u010den\u00ed a vyzbrojen\u00ed isl\u00e1m\u0161t\u00ed gardist\u00e9. Dojde k p\u0159evzet\u00ed moci (respektive k pu\u010di) a v\u00fdsledkem bude nov\u00fd autokratick\u00fd fanatick\u00fd a militantn\u00ed re\u017eim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No a potom, kdy\u017e se k nim p\u0159idaj\u00ed teroristick\u00e9 bu\u0148ky ISIL, infiltrovan\u00e9 do Evropy b\u011bhem migra\u010dn\u00ed krize, kter\u00e9 se mohou aktivizovat naprosto autonomn\u011b, tak p\u00e1nb\u016fh s n\u00e1mi. Bylo mi dop\u0159edu jasn\u00e9 (a za\u017eil jsem v oblasti t\u0159i americk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, Pou\u0161tn\u00ed bou\u0159i, Pou\u0161tn\u00ed \u0161t\u00edt a \u00fatok na Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n), \u017ee kdy\u017e u\u017e Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 p\u0159ivezli takovou spoustu munice, \u017ee stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch konfliktech to zp\u00e1tky nepovezou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je mi l\u00edto v\u0161ech, kte\u0159\u00ed zbyte\u010dn\u011b zem\u0159ou, proto\u017ee jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee se m\u00e1 jednat do posledn\u00edho momentu, dokud je aspo\u0148 kous\u00ed\u010dek nad\u011bje na zachov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A ROZTO\u010c\u00cd SE CENY ENERGI\u00cd ZASE NAHORU A PROST\u00dd LID EUSSR BUDE NAD\u00c1LE O\u017dEBRA\u010cOV\u00c1N A FINANCE ST\u00c1TU, BEZTAK NESPLATITELN\u00c9 DLUHY, SE ZV\u00dd\u0160\u00cd, A\u017d SI N\u00c1S BANKY ROZEBEROU JAKO STAVEBNICI.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

01.03.2026 13:33 | Koment\u00e1\u0159 autor: Jakub Vos\u00e1hlo B\u00fdval\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f \u010desk\u00e9 ambas\u00e1dy v Teher\u00e1nu Ji\u0159\u00ed Kobza v koment\u00e1\u0159i pro Parlamentn\u00edListy.cz uvedl, \u017ee \u00fatok USA a Izraele na \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee teher\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim sp\u00ed\u0161e upevnit, ne\u017e oslabit. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 nazna\u010dil, \u017ee v pozad\u00ed mohou hr\u00e1t roli i vnitropolitick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech p\u0159ed volbami. Podle n\u011bj je nutn\u00e9 usilovat o … Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed textu Jestli padne \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim, tak p\u00e1nb\u016fh s n\u00e1mi. Ji\u0159\u00ed Kobza a \u010dern\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-pc"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23118"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23118\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23119,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23118\/revisions\/23119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.podivinsky.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}